Prediction Markets
Can You Actually Beat Polymarket? I Spent Weeks Trying Everything.
Start here · A short series on whether you can actually beat Polymarket. Ten ways in, one honest answer.
Data-driven studies of Polymarket: market efficiency, on-chain trading, and reproduce-it-yourself analysis.
Prediction Markets
Start here · A short series on whether you can actually beat Polymarket. Ten ways in, one honest answer.
AI
Part 1 · I built an 8-agent AI swarm to forecast Polymarket. It cost 27 cents a run and lost to the market price.
Quant
Part 2 · Longshot bias, momentum, illiquid markets, calendar arbitrage - six classic edges, tested against 648 markets.
Market Making
Part 4 · A follow-up. I borrowed a sharp sportsbook's line, then tried market-making. One nearly fooled me with a +4.6% that became a 5.5% loss.