Prediction Markets
Can You Actually Beat Polymarket? I Spent Weeks Trying Everything.
Start here · A short series on whether you can actually beat Polymarket. Ten ways in, one honest answer.
Prediction Markets
Independent, reproducible research on prediction markets - pricing, efficiency, and whether you can actually beat them.
AI
I Built an Army of AI Pundits to Beat a Prediction Market. They Lost to a Single Number.
Part 1 · I built an 8-agent AI swarm to forecast Polymarket. It cost 27 cents a run and lost to the market price.
Quant
Six Ways to Beat Polymarket That All Don't Work
Part 2 · Longshot bias, momentum, illiquid markets, calendar arbitrage - six classic edges, tested against 648 markets.
On-Chain
Polymarket's Best Traders Made Millions. I Checked If You Could Copy Them.
Part 3 · Can you copy Polymarket's most profitable wallets? I split 157 traders' history in half - yesterday's winners lost out of sample.
Market Making
I Said Polymarket Was Efficient. Then I Tried Two More Ways to Break It.
Part 4 · A follow-up. I borrowed a sharp sportsbook's line, then tried market-making. One nearly fooled me with a +4.6% that became a 5.5% loss.